Scottish consumer response to Stay Alert message: UK Parliament publication
Researchers at the University of St Andrews School of Management have made a written submission to the Scottish Affairs Committee of the UK Parliament in response to the call for evidence on Coronavirus and Scotland. Their research suggests that the Stay Alert message to English households from Prime Minister Johnson on 10 May 2020 led to an increase in consumer spending in both England and Scotland.
Dr Dimitris Chronopoulos, Dr Marcel Lukas and Professor John Wilson, of the Centre for Responsible Banking and Finance at the University of St Andrews, studied anonymised banking transactions of more than 8,000 Scottish individuals around the time of the announcement from PM Johnson.
The key findings of this analysis were:
- Spending on groceries and dining and drinking increased in Scotland after the Stay Alert message but remained on similar levels in England.
- Results differ significantly between the different regions in Scotland. In Southern Scotland in particular, individuals spent more on discretionary items and dining and drinking after the message.
- Dining and drinking expenditure grew by 3.5% in Aberdeen, by 15% in Falkirk and by 18% in South Lanarkshire.
- Local level data shows that weekly spending on groceries increased by 3.5% in Edinburgh, Falkirk and Na h-Eileanan Siar after the message.
The researchers suggest that this form of real-time analysis of consumer spending is invaluable in understanding the impact of policy changes around Covid-19 on consumer spending and the likely impacts on the wider economy.
