The impact of profit shifting on children’s rights

Estimates of tax revenue lost to corporate profit shifting (profits shifted multiplied by the statutory corporate income tax rate) for 154 countries, 2015–2021, were taken from the Atlas of the Offshore World (data update guide by Gidron, Wier and Zucman, July 2025) and entered into GRADE; child rights outcome data were available for 152 of these countries. Each country-year estimate, published in current US dollars, was converted to constant 2015 US dollars (the unit of government revenue in GRADE) using a country- and year-specific World Bank factor (GDP in constant 2015 US dollars, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD, divided by GDP in current US dollars, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD; World Development Indicators, 13 July 2026). Tax revenue lost was available for 158 economies; we excluded three whose loss was reported as zero in every year (San Marino, Palau and Vanuatu) and Taiwan, for which no country-year adjustment factor was available, leaving 154. The mean annual loss over the years with an estimate was entered as additional government revenue, using the GRADE 2026 base data (GRADE version 3.24.2). GRADE accounts for the non-linear relationship between revenue and outcomes and for governance quality, measured by the six Worldwide Governance Indicators; the estimates shown here are the combined effect of increased revenue and improved governance. Below we see the modelled estimates if governments had additional government revenue equivalent to lost tax revenue from corporate profit shifting.

Findings

Outcomes: These are the additional child rights gains if countries had additional revenue equivalent to the tax revenue lost to profit shifting. Outcomes are child-rights-specific indicators across four domains: child survival and health, education, basic services (water, sanitation, electricity, clean fuels), and social security. Cumulative outcome figures are only computed for flow variables (deaths averted, additional child school years) which can be summed across years. For stock variables (e.g. the numbers accessing basic water) we report the value in the latest year (2021), the same person is counted only once.

At the country level results, the “% of those without” indicators show the share of the unmet need in each country in 2021.

Coverage: Outcome data are not available for every country. Social security is modelled for the 59 countries with social protection coverage data, so its totals are not comparable in scale with the other outcomes; the remaining outcomes cover between 128 and 152 countries.

Attribution: We assume a proportional relationship between facilitation of cross-border profit shifting and responsibility for the resulting deprivation of children’s rights in another country. The modelled gains for each country are divided between EU and non-EU tax havens in proportion to each group’s share of that country’s mean annual revenue loss, 2015–2021 (constant 2015 US dollars), using the Atlas estimates by counterpart. This allocates responsibility for the modelled harm; it is not a separate simulation of action by one group of havens alone.

Time frame: Allows the selection of a single year, or “2015–2021” for the full cumulative window. Tap any bar in the chart, map, or country in the sortable table — to see that country’s full profile. Country profiles include a copy-link button, and a PDF brief.

Income group: Allows selection of all income groups or one of the four World Bank Income groups.