GRADE Simulations

Government Revenue and Development Estimations · Universities of St Andrews and Leicester
Underlying debt-service data from Debt Justice

What External Debt Cancellation Could Deliver, 2020-2026

For 121 low-, lower-middle-, and upper-middle-income countries, this tool shows what the recovery of revenue lost to external debt servicing could deliver across health, education, basic services, and social protection - year by year, country by country.

Estimates apply published elasticities to the additional government revenue freed if external debt service obligations were fully cancelled. Outcomes are reported either as flows (deaths averted, additional child school years - which can be summed across years) or as stocks (population coverage in a given year - the same person counted only once). The "% of those without" indicators show the share of the unmet need in each country addressed by 2026; a value of 100% means the additional revenue is large enough to close the entire remaining gap, not that the figure has been capped. Time frame selects a single year, or "Total impact 2020-2026" for the full window. Tap any bar in the chart - or any country in the table - to see that country's full profile. When "All regions" and "All income groups" are selected (the default view), the bar chart shows the top 30 countries by the selected outcome to keep the chart readable; selecting an income group or region shows all matching countries in full. Mobile screens always cap at 30. Complete data for every country is always available in the sortable table below. Country profiles support direct linking (the URL updates with ?country=Name as you select), a "Copy link" button for sharing, and a "Save as PDF" button that prints a clean one-page country brief covering all four outcome groups.

- countries
If external debt were cancelled - aggregate impact across 121 countries
Outcome group
Outcome
Time frame
Income group
Region
Country
Tip: click any country bar to see its full profile across all outcome groups, 2020-2026.

All countries - sortable summary table

Cumulative 2020-2026 for flows (deaths averted, school years); 2026 stock for population-coverage outcomes; "% closed" columns show the share of unmet need addressed by 2026. Click any column header to sort, or a country name to open its profile.

Key takeaways

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Source: GRADE simulations (Universities of St Andrews and Leicester) applying published outcome elasticities to the additional government revenue freed under full cancellation of external public and publicly-guaranteed debt service obligations published by Debt Justice. Country-year panel covers 121 low-, lower-middle-, and upper-middle-income economies (World Bank FY2025 classification, high-income excluded), 2020-2026. Cumulative figures are only computed for flow variables (deaths averted, additional child school years); for stock variables we report the value in the latest year (2026).