GRADE Simulations

Government Revenue and Development Estimations · Universities of St Andrews and Leicester
Underlying debt-service estimates from Debt Justice

What Capping External Debt Service at 10% of Government Revenue Could Deliver, 2020–2026

For 68 low-, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries, this tool models the benefit of capping external debt service at 10% of government revenue. Debt service may reduce the maximum available resources (MAR) governments can deploy to fulfil their human rights obligations.

INTERNATIONAL ACTORS CROSS-BORDER MECHANISMS IMPACT Tax havens and low-tax jurisdictions Profit shifting and tax abuse Bilateral creditors; states regulating private lenders; members of IFIs Onerous external debt service ← focus of this tool Influential voting members of international financial organisations Fiscal consolidation policy advice Influential voting members of international financial organisations Monetary policy and financial conditionality Official development assistance partners Official development assistance conditionality Reduction in Maximum Available Resources Constrained ability to use Maximum Available Resources Constrained progressive realisation of economic, social and cultural rights

Figure 1. Cross-border constraints on maximum available resources for human rights. This tool focuses on the highlighted pathway: Onerous external debt service → reduction in maximum available resources → constrained progressive realisation of ESC Rights.

This tool used the average of Debt Justice estimates of external public and publicly guaranteed debt service as a % of government revenue for the years 2020-2026. These were inputted into the GRADE model and this tool summarises the findings. Outcomes are reported either as flows (deaths averted, additional child school years — which can be summed across years) or as stocks (population coverage in a given year — the same person counted only once). The "% of those without" show the share of the unmet need in each country addressed by 2026; a value of 100% means the additional revenue is large enough to close the entire remaining gap. Time frame selects a single year, or "2020–2026" for the full cumulative window. Tap any country in the map, bar in the chart — or any country in the table — to see that country’s full profile. Full data is in the sortable table below. Country profiles include a direct link, a copy-link button, and a one-page PDF brief.

- countries
If external debt service were capped at 10% — foreseeable impact across 68 countries
Outcome group
Time frame
Income group
Region
Country
Tip: click any country bar to see its full profile across all outcome groups, 2020–2026.

All countries - sortable summary table

Cumulative 2020–2026 for flow outcomes (deaths averted, child school years); 2026 value for stock outcomes (coverage); "% closed" shows share of unmet need addressed by 2026. Click any column header to sort, or a country name to open its profile.

Key takeaways

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Source: GRADE simulations (Universities of St Andrews and Leicester) were applied to the additional government revenue that would be available if external public and publicly guaranteed debt service obligations were capped at 10% of government revenue. Debt-service estimates from Debt Justice. Country-year panel covers 68 low-, lower-middle- and upper-middle-income economies (World Bank FY2025 classification, high-income excluded), 2020–2026. Outcomes cover all age groups; all figures are additional gains attributable to capping debt service.