GRADE Simulations
Government Revenue and Development Estimations · Universities of St Andrews and Leicester
Underlying debt-service estimates from Debt Justice
What Capping External Debt Service at 10% of Government Revenue Could Deliver, 2020–2026
For 68 low-, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries, this tool models the benefit of capping external debt service at 10% of government revenue. Debt service may reduce the maximum available resources (MAR) governments can deploy to fulfil their human rights obligations.
Figure 1. Cross-border constraints on maximum available resources for human rights. This tool focuses on the highlighted pathway: Onerous external debt service → reduction in maximum available resources → constrained progressive realisation of ESC Rights.
This tool used the average of Debt Justice estimates of external public and publicly guaranteed debt service as a % of government revenue for the years 2020-2026. These were inputted into the GRADE model and this tool summarises the findings. Outcomes are reported either as flows (deaths averted, additional child school years — which can be summed across years) or as stocks (population coverage in a given year — the same person counted only once). The "% of those without" show the share of the unmet need in each country addressed by 2026; a value of 100% means the additional revenue is large enough to close the entire remaining gap. Time frame selects a single year, or "2020–2026" for the full cumulative window. Tap any country in the map, bar in the chart — or any country in the table — to see that country’s full profile. Full data is in the sortable table below. Country profiles include a direct link, a copy-link button, and a one-page PDF brief. “Commonwealth only” selects the 26 Commonwealth members among the 68 countries; “Commonwealth in debt crisis (21)” selects the 21 Commonwealth countries spending more than 14% of government revenue on external debt payments, as listed in SCIAF and Debt Justice (2026), Debt Crisis in the Commonwealth: A Call for UK Global Leadership, and reproduces the figures in that report.
Outcome group
Time frame
Income group
Region
Commonwealth
Country
Under-5 deaths averted — cumulative 2020-2026
LowerHigher
Grey: no data / outside filter
68
Countries with non-zero estimates
378,918
Total across countries (2020–2026)
79,534
Largest gain - Angola
1,179
Median country (Papua New Guinea)
All countries - sortable summary table
Cumulative 2020–2026 for flow outcomes (deaths averted, child school years); 2026 value for stock outcomes (coverage); "% closed" shows share of unmet need addressed by 2026. Click any column header to sort, or a country name to open its profile.
| Country▲ | Income | Region | Commonwealth | U5 deaths averted (cumulative) | Maternal deaths averted (cumulative) | Children not stunted (2026) | As a % of children stunted (2026) | Child school years, all levels (cumulative) | % out of school in 2026 (all levels) | People with water access (2026) | % of those without water access in 2026 | People with sanitation access (2026) | % of those without sanitation access in 2026 | People with social security (2026) | % of those without social security in 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | UMIC | Europe & Central Asia | No | 33 | 1 | 101 | 1.0% | 1,498 | 1.3% | 1,129 | 1.0% | 2,386 | 72.3% | 4,535 | 0.3% |
| Angola | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 79,534 | 7,126 | 122,898 | 4.2% | 1,733,700 | 7.5% | 2,211,700 | 13.5% | 3,598,433 | 19.5% | 1,324,488 | 4.3% |
| Argentina | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | No | 2,799 | 35 | 6,957 | 2.8% | 65,793 | 12.3% | 22,991 | 5.2% | 380,921 | 16.0% | 298,486 | 1.5% |
| Armenia | UMIC | Europe & Central Asia | No | 146 | 9 | 394 | 3.4% | 7,230 | 5.2% | 0 | - | 28,616 | 17.3% | 14,357 | 0.9% |
| Bangladesh | LMIC | South Asia | Yes | 3,879 | 390 | 29,196 | 0.7% | 428,855 | 2.2% | 259,235 | 9.9% | 522,600 | 0.9% | 291,127 | 0.2% |
| Belize | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | Yes | 49 | 2 | 105 | 2.5% | 1,323 | 3.3% | 2,365 | 43.1% | 5,146 | 10.5% | 3,070 | 1.1% |
| Benin | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 2,369 | 568 | 23,465 | 3.5% | 358,961 | 3.5% | 173,893 | 3.6% | 170,638 | 1.4% | 139,622 | 1.1% |
| Bhutan | LMIC | South Asia | No | 106 | 15 | 476 | 4.4% | 11,841 | 10.2% | 3,129 | 100.0% | 8,453 | 6.0% | 9,185 | 1.4% |
| Bolivia | LMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | No | 575 | 74 | 1,615 | 1.2% | 16,546 | 2.9% | 33,090 | 7.0% | 52,073 | 1.8% | 23,206 | 0.3% |
| Cabo Verde | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 40 | 5 | 138 | 4.8% | 5,498 | 18.5% | 7,984 | 19.2% | 2,223 | 4.6% | 4,329 | 1.0% |
| Cameroon | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 5,447 | 606 | 26,860 | 2.2% | 332,433 | 5.8% | 197,373 | 2.3% | 436,103 | 2.5% | 183,536 | 0.8% |
| Central African Republic | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 359 | 12 | 575 | 0.1% | 13,521 | 0.2% | 4,321 | 0.1% | 1,175 | 0.0% | 3,829 | 0.1% |
| Chad | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 1,617 | 120 | 5,046 | 0.4% | 59,498 | 0.7% | 27,366 | 0.3% | 59,447 | 0.3% | 32,554 | 0.2% |
| Colombia | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | No | 2,389 | 51 | 7,727 | 2.0% | 90,766 | 2.8% | 22,561 | 2.6% | 47,128 | 5.6% | 244,121 | 1.2% |
| Congo | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 4,151 | 395 | 4,615 | 3.1% | 94,567 | 2.7% | 103,171 | 6.2% | 232,151 | 4.4% | 62,228 | 1.2% |
| Cote d'Ivoire | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 8,468 | 1,126 | 51,962 | 5.6% | 657,565 | 3.8% | 546,895 | 6.1% | 1,013,389 | 5.1% | 434,524 | 1.7% |
| Djibouti | LMIC | Middle East & North Africa | No | 38 | 4 | 113 | 0.5% | - | 0.2% | 2,260 | 0.8% | 4,276 | 1.2% | 1,317 | 0.1% |
| Dominican Republic | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | No | 2,594 | 106 | 6,804 | 13.0% | 79,961 | 3.2% | 70,453 | 24.9% | 251,123 | 23.4% | 210,884 | 3.4% |
| Ecuador | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | No | 617 | 16 | 1,462 | 0.5% | 18,741 | 1.0% | 10,549 | 1.8% | 37,312 | 4.9% | 44,256 | 0.5% |
| Egypt | LMIC | Middle East & North Africa | No | 56,834 | 4,044 | 212,221 | 8.9% | 2,791,688 | 32.6% | 1,453,224 | 100.0% | 2,065,740 | 100.0% | 2,201,787 | 2.6% |
| El Salvador | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | No | 1,749 | 87 | 4,749 | 10.1% | 64,062 | 2.3% | 0 | - | 171,854 | 23.7% | 124,428 | 3.5% |
| Ethiopia | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 8,688 | 689 | 66,474 | 1.0% | 1,310,212 | 1.7% | 203,578 | 0.4% | 317,875 | 0.3% | 360,555 | 0.3% |
| Fiji | UMIC | East Asia & Pacific | Yes | 19 | 1 | 79 | 1.4% | 801 | 2.3% | 951 | 2.3% | 3,175 | 4.7% | 1,536 | 0.3% |
| Gabon | UMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 2,216 | 176 | 4,961 | 11.3% | - | - | 101,304 | 32.6% | 195,252 | 14.9% | 58,640 | 3.2% |
| Georgia | UMIC | Europe & Central Asia | No | 140 | 4 | 583 | 5.9% | 970 | - | 1,073 | 0.7% | 997 | 0.2% | 19,777 | 1.2% |
| Ghana | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 2,576 | 352 | 21,430 | 4.1% | 294,203 | 3.7% | 267,890 | 10.7% | 336,404 | 1.5% | 230,001 | 0.9% |
| Grenada | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | Yes | 9 | 0 | - | - | 34 | 3.8% | 11 | 0.2% | 689 | 6.9% | 1,051 | 1.8% |
| Guatemala | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | No | 79 | 7 | 243 | 0.0% | 3,908 | 0.1% | 5,263 | 0.7% | 11,689 | 0.2% | 4,160 | 0.0% |
| Guinea-Bissau | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 326 | 22 | 647 | 0.8% | 18,667 | 1.1% | 4,857 | 0.6% | -152 | -0.0% | 6,213 | 0.3% |
| Honduras | LMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | No | 417 | 34 | 1,120 | 0.6% | 13,711 | 0.2% | 24,047 | 8.6% | 55,915 | 4.2% | 18,252 | 0.2% |
| Indonesia | UMIC | East Asia & Pacific | No | 17,553 | 1,992 | 153,130 | 2.3% | 1,920,964 | 7.0% | 2,543,515 | 33.9% | 4,174,358 | 100.0% | 2,934,901 | 1.8% |
| Jamaica | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | Yes | 465 | 11 | 1,849 | 18.0% | 20,422 | 4.5% | 4,645 | 1.9% | 27,210 | 7.2% | 67,323 | 6.0% |
| Jordan | LMIC | Middle East & North Africa | No | 3,153 | 230 | 12,676 | 17.6% | 119,896 | 23.2% | 115,895 | 100.0% | 120,237 | 34.1% | 189,071 | 2.6% |
| Kazakhstan | UMIC | Europe & Central Asia | No | 89 | 1 | 211 | 0.2% | 1,988 | 0.1% | 147 | 0.0% | 127 | 0.0% | 3,811 | 0.0% |
| Kenya | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 7,679 | 878 | 62,605 | 4.8% | 712,289 | 4.9% | 602,700 | 3.0% | 1,360,601 | 3.8% | 596,228 | 1.4% |
| Lao PDR | LMIC | East Asia & Pacific | No | 2,504 | 389 | 9,735 | 4.6% | 158,776 | 11.5% | 214,685 | 23.7% | 351,814 | 27.2% | 96,863 | 1.5% |
| Madagascar | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 201 | 13 | 1,388 | 0.1% | 27,147 | 0.1% | 4,336 | 0.0% | 4,439 | 0.0% | 7,248 | 0.0% |
| Malawi | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 814 | 65 | 5,597 | 0.5% | 131,707 | 1.2% | 12,409 | 0.2% | 12,880 | 0.1% | 25,013 | 0.1% |
| Maldives | UMIC | South Asia | Yes | 154 | 5 | 261 | 6.8% | 3,044 | 10.5% | 1,435 | 100.0% | 0 | - | 12,018 | 3.2% |
| Mauritania | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 778 | 82 | 3,165 | 1.7% | 35,400 | 0.9% | 34,940 | 4.7% | 50,676 | 2.9% | 23,122 | 0.5% |
| Mauritius | UMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 99 | 1 | 231 | 4.7% | 5,542 | 6.1% | 0 | - | - | - | 17,664 | 3.4% |
| Mongolia | UMIC | East Asia & Pacific | No | 1,276 | 71 | 2,533 | 13.8% | 35,811 | 8.4% | 57,271 | 11.9% | 136,753 | 14.8% | 76,152 | 3.7% |
| Montenegro | UMIC | Europe & Central Asia | No | 66 | 0 | 152 | 5.4% | 1,028 | - | 40 | 1.3% | 109 | 1.4% | 8,214 | 4.2% |
| Morocco | LMIC | Middle East & North Africa | No | 786 | 60 | 3,108 | 0.8% | 34,539 | 2.4% | 57,469 | 1.6% | 94,617 | 2.4% | 59,092 | 0.2% |
| Mozambique | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 1,862 | 292 | 13,695 | 0.6% | 161,978 | 0.6% | 61,813 | 0.6% | 109,858 | 0.5% | 81,912 | 0.3% |
| Niger | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 1,471 | 130 | 13,930 | 0.6% | 225,803 | 0.7% | 34,432 | 0.2% | 55,890 | 0.2% | 64,503 | 0.3% |
| Nigeria | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 15,632 | 1,463 | 65,649 | 0.6% | 884,263 | 0.7% | 466,095 | 1.5% | 881,562 | 0.8% | 537,928 | 0.3% |
| North Macedonia | UMIC | Europe & Central Asia | No | 135 | 1 | 320 | 10.6% | 6,314 | 6.8% | 2,198 | 6.2% | 0 | - | 17,963 | 2.2% |
| Pakistan | LMIC | South Asia | Yes | 64,149 | 8,326 | 445,418 | 4.2% | 5,978,198 | 6.3% | 3,254,643 | 14.3% | 7,485,207 | 13.7% | 3,416,224 | 1.7% |
| Papua New Guinea | LMIC | East Asia & Pacific | Yes | 1,179 | 121 | 4,057 | 0.6% | 62,763 | 1.2% | 58,949 | 1.2% | 71,729 | 0.8% | 53,032 | 0.6% |
| Paraguay | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | No | 1,092 | 66 | 2,860 | 13.5% | 33,463 | 1.5% | 0 | - | 71,600 | 87.8% | 66,713 | 1.8% |
| Rwanda | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 114 | 22 | 2,654 | 0.5% | 28,638 | 2.1% | 19,620 | 0.4% | 24,986 | 0.8% | 12,491 | 0.1% |
| Senegal | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 5,215 | 1,060 | 48,860 | 11.3% | 692,934 | 4.5% | 481,637 | 29.5% | 614,577 | 9.1% | 415,132 | 2.8% |
| Sierra Leone | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 1,388 | 123 | 3,251 | 1.1% | 91,821 | 4.4% | 28,137 | 1.1% | 5,075 | 0.1% | 29,254 | 0.4% |
| South Sudan | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 14,338 | 596 | 2,401 | 0.5% | 149,141 | 1.1% | 21,648 | 0.3% | 64,735 | 0.6% | 95,780 | - |
| Sri Lanka | LMIC | South Asia | Yes | 5,076 | 453 | 27,312 | 10.8% | 520,803 | 56.2% | 636,670 | 28.9% | 282,515 | 100.0% | 414,285 | 2.2% |
| St. Lucia | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | Yes | 19 | 0 | 34 | 13.7% | 506 | 2.2% | 47 | 0.9% | 1,660 | 5.6% | 2,386 | 2.8% |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | Yes | 6 | 0 | - | - | 111 | 8.0% | 4 | 0.2% | 472 | 4.6% | 750 | 1.7% |
| Sudan | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | No | 27,234 | 1,071 | 49,561 | 1.8% | 910,481 | 2.0% | 393,402 | 2.5% | 244,807 | 0.7% | 424,302 | 0.9% |
| Suriname | UMIC | Latin America & Caribbean | No | 338 | 19 | 338 | 8.4% | 6,376 | 1.9% | 6,130 | 100.0% | 32,001 | 59.5% | 14,053 | 3.3% |
| Tanzania | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 4,812 | 612 | 42,972 | 1.3% | 541,919 | 1.3% | 245,113 | 1.0% | 343,411 | 0.7% | 223,335 | 0.4% |
| The Gambia | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 158 | 15 | 1,104 | 2.2% | 23,474 | 3.3% | 5,051 | 1.5% | 2,739 | 0.2% | 6,055 | 0.2% |
| Togo | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 548 | 61 | 4,674 | 1.5% | 67,842 | 10.2% | 26,136 | 1.1% | 48,331 | 0.6% | 29,754 | 0.4% |
| Tunisia | LMIC | Middle East & North Africa | No | 3,568 | 165 | 8,378 | 12.0% | 142,970 | 9.6% | 118,916 | 80.5% | 0 | - | 267,758 | 3.7% |
| Turkmenistan | UMIC | Europe & Central Asia | No | 1,803 | 17 | 1,875 | 3.8% | - | - | 0 | - | 0 | - | 24,470 | 0.4% |
| Uganda | LIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 2,644 | 159 | 30,051 | 1.6% | 334,023 | 1.1% | 126,884 | 0.7% | 314,950 | 0.8% | 162,472 | 0.4% |
| Uzbekistan | LMIC | Europe & Central Asia | No | 487 | 20 | 1,482 | 0.5% | 8,412 | 0.3% | 21,249 | 3.0% | 32,661 | 2.7% | 14,814 | 0.1% |
| Zambia | LMIC | Sub-Saharan Africa | Yes | 1,772 | 98 | 8,320 | 0.8% | 104,527 | 1.5% | 83,848 | 1.3% | 93,026 | 0.7% | 70,901 | 0.4% |
Key takeaways
- In 68 countries, capping external debt service at 10% of government revenue would produce foreseeable gains in under-5 deaths averted.
- Largest gains: Angola, Pakistan, Egypt - 79,534; 64,149; 56,834.
- Across all qualifying countries, an estimated 378,918 under-5 deaths averted cumulative over 2020–2026.
- Click any bar to open that country's full health, education, services, and social-security profile.
Source: GRADE simulations (Universities of St Andrews and Leicester) were applied to the additional government revenue that would be available if external public and publicly guaranteed debt service obligations were capped at 10% of government revenue. Debt-service estimates from Debt Justice. Country-year panel covers 68 low-, lower-middle- and upper-middle-income economies (World Bank FY2025 classification, high-income excluded), 2020–2026. Outcomes cover all age groups; all figures are additional gains attributable to capping debt service.