GRADE Simulations

Government Revenue and Development Estimations · Universities of St Andrews and Leicester
Underlying profit-shifting estimates from the Debt Justice

Child Rights and Extraterritorial Obligations (CRETO): What Cancelling External Debt Service Could Deliver for Children, 2020–2026

For 121 low-, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries, this tool models the foreseeable impact on children's rights — across child survival and health, education, basic services, and social security — if external debt service were cancelled. Under international human rights law, states bear extraterritorial obligations (ETOs) to ensure debt service does not reduce the maximum available resources (MAR) governments can deploy to fulfil child rights under the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child.

INTERNATIONAL ACTORS CROSS-BORDER MECHANISMS IMPACT Tax havens and low-tax jurisdictions Profit shifting and tax abuse Bilateral creditors; states regulating private lenders; members of IFIs Onerous external debt service ← focus of this tool Influential voting members of international financial organisations Fiscal consolidation policy advice Influential voting members of international financial organisations Monetary policy and financial conditionality Official development assistance partners Official development assistance conditionality Reduction in Maximum Available Resources Constrained ability to use Maximum Available Resources Constrained progressive realisation of children's rights

Figure 1. Cross-border constraints on maximum available resources for children’s rights. This tool focuses on the highlighted pathway: onerous external debt service → reduction in maximum available resources → constrained progressive realisation of children’s rights.

This tool used the average of Debt Justice estimates of external public and publicly guaranteed debt service as a % of government revenue for the years 2020-2026. These were inputted into the GRADE model, and this tool summarises the findings. Outcomes are child-rights-specific indicators across four UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC) domains: child survival and health, education, child basic services (water, sanitation, electricity, clean fuels), and child social security. Outcomes are reported either as flows (deaths averted, additional child school years — which can be summed across years) or as stocks (population coverage in a given year — the same person counted only once). The “% of those without” indicators show the share of the unmet need addressed by 2026 if the government had additional revenue equivalent to the external debt service. Time frame selects a single year, or “2020–2026” for the full cumulative window. Tap any country in the map, bar in the chart — or any country in the table — to see that country’s full profile. Full data is in the sortable table below. Country profiles include a direct link, a copy-link button, and a PDF brief.

- countries
If external debt service were cancelled — foreseeable impact on children's rights across 121 countries
Outcome group
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Tip: click any country bar to see its full child-rights profile, 2020–2026.

All countries - sortable summary table

Cumulative 2020–2026 for flow outcomes (deaths averted, child school years); 2026 value for stock outcomes (coverage); "% closed" shows share of unmet need addressed by 2026. Click any column header to sort, or a country name to open its profile.

Key takeaways

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Source: GRADE simulations (Universities of St Andrews and Leicester) applying published outcome elasticities to the additional government revenue that would be available if external public and publicly-guaranteed debt service obligations were fully cancelled. Debt-service estimates from Debt Justice. Country-year panel covers 121 low-, lower-middle- and upper-middle-income economies (World Bank FY2025 classification, high-income excluded), 2020–2026. Outcomes are child-rights-specific indicators; all figures are additional gains attributable to debt cancellation, not totals. Child Rights and Extraterritorial Obligations (CRETO) framing draws on the Maastricht Principles on ETOs and the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child. Cumulative figures are only computed for flow variables (deaths averted, additional child school years); for stock variables we report the value in the latest year (2026).