We have a diverse range of expertise in the School which we have summarised and grouped into four themes:
- Applied theory, decision theory and game theory
- Empirical economics and econometrics
- Macro and international economics
Applied decision and game theory
Luc is interested primarily in the economics of organisations: how firms, nonprofit organisations, organised advocacy groups or governments define, monitor and delegate activities and the extent to which the use of external contractors and markets helps or hinders their objectives. He is also interested in the economics of higher education and in tax design.
Miguel’s research observes the behavior of individuals in a variety of economic contexts, under controlled conditions, in a computer laboratory. Environments include situations where individuals do not interact with others and have to choose between different alternatives to those where people interact with others, such as in parlour games or in markets in which financial assets are traded. Using statistical tools , Miguel models individuals’ observed behaviour to predict their behaviour in novel situations.
As an economic theorist Tugce develops analytical tools and models to study a wide range of social and economic phenomena. She is interested in inequality theory and the design of measures that helps us to evaluate the extent of inequalities between individuals in a society. In particular Tugce is interested in the measurement and assessment of non-income inequalities such as education inequality, health inequality or subjective well-being inequality for the development of welfare policies in society. Tugce also tries to understand the different procedures that individuals use to make their decisions and in particular the role of social influence in individual decision.
Yorgos is primarily interested in the theoretical modelling of individual decision processes and in the implications for economic activity that are associated with various well-documented behavioural deviations from the “rational-choice” theoretical ideal. For example, he has developed an interest and expertise in the so-called “choice deferral” phenomenon whereby a decision maker temporarily or indefinitely avoids choice, e.g. due to indecisiveness or cognitive limitations/overload. Yorgos is also interested in designing and conducting experiments that aim to study the behaviour of individual decision makers; test the validity of various decision theories and also to motivate novel theories.
Jim is interested in climate change and the best way to reach an agreement on carbon reduction, which he believes is a universal tax and an equal compensation for everyone strategy. He is also interested basic income and believes that replacing unemployment benefit with basic income can benefit a poor majority.
Margherita’s research uses theoretical models to analyse economic problems. Her primary interest lies in Political Economics, but she has worked on the axiomatic construction of measures of ethnic voting as well. Recently, she analysed the effect of two different forms of proportional representation systems (open vs closed list) on the representation of minorities in Parliaments, the reasons behind the existence of vote swapping platforms in the UK and the impact of political institutions on the level of openness and welfare inclusion of immigration policies.
Kemal’s main research area is Decision Theory. He studies mathematical models of choice via axiomatic methods and is currently working on models of costly information acquisition and of self-discipline. Information acquisition models are used in the literature to explain many real and financial market anomalies such as frictions. Models of self-discipline are used to determine optimal public policies such as taxation. Kemal utilises mathematical tools, for instance, from convex analysis and measure theory.
As an applied microeconometrician, Matt has a broad research interest in developing methods and implementing procedures that involve taking economic theory to microdata in both observational and experimental settings. Most (but not all) of his work (to date and in progress) follows in the tradition of revealed preference. This strand of applied microeconomics has the advantage of being agnostic about almost everything except the essential components of a given model, i.e., it avoids making auxiliary assumptions which often conflate primary and ancillary hypotheses. Matt researches extending the approach to new classes of models of decision making and consumer behavior; developing a coherent framework for capturing departures from rationality (which is important empirically), and bringing revealed preference into dialogue with more conventional econometric approaches.
Clara specialises in Game Theory, Political Economy and Public Economics. She has conducted extensive research on conflict resolution, negotiations, mediation and voting. Currently Clara is exploring the links between group formation and majoritarian institutions, to understand the causes and effects of meritocracy and egalitarianism in the performance and stability of democratic organizations.
Ian applies statistical methods to investigate social and economic patterns in family and household behaviour. He has studied the causes of divorce evaluating whether couples stay together for the sake of the house; the determinants of sexual satisfaction and the roles of education and occupation in accounting for marital infidelity. Ian is also interested in religious behaviour and the role of the religious market in explaining the incentives faced by religious participants and religious professionals. He has also applied economic tools to sport, evaluating various policies and outcomes in cricket, horse racing, football and baseball.
David is interested in the effectiveness of competition and tax authorities in tackling various types of company misbehaviour, such as price rigging and tax avoidance and the effectiveness of different penalty systems. He is also interested in the effectiveness of different types of tax and benefit systems and in the implications for environmental and welfare policies of recognising that individual well-being and behaviour is affected by factors such as their relative income, and various types of social norm.
Min is interested in microeconomic theory with current focus on social learning. He studies a variety of economic contexts with uncertainty, eg how people make inference about the unknowns based on what they have witnessed in the past and the behaviour they exhibit as a consequence, so as to predict future outcomes of the society and provide suggestions for developing/amending policy.
Andy is a theoretical economist whose research interests lie in the field of microeconomic theory and applications, focusing on communication, contracts, and robust decision theory.
Empirical economics and econometrics
Toman's research interests are primarily in development economics, political economy, and behavioral economics. His research focuses on (i) the causes and consequences of international migration for migrants as well as their countries of destination and origin and (ii) the origins and economic implications of preferences and attitudes. His research is based on experimental and observational micro-level data, which he often collects in the field.
Margaret uses data to answer questions and to test economic hypothesis. While education is her primary field of interest, she has also worked on projects in development economics; labour economics; health economics and conflict. In recent research, she has gathered and analysed data to better understand how education policies shape students’ school choices, and how those choices determine important later outcomes such as occupations, wages, and career satisfaction.
Rod is an econometrician with theoretical and applied interests. Recently, he has been working on the distributional aspects of trend estimation and inference. He is also interested in High Frequency Econometrics and the formulation of mixed-frequency macroeconometric models. Rod has recently worked on testing for mildly explosive episodes and bubbles in commodity prices, during and in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. He is currently working on providing an evidence-based assessment of the fundamentals underlying the recent oil price collapse.
Irina is a labour economist with research interests in the dynamics of employment behaviour over the life cycle; search theory; health and ageing. Her current research projects address the impact of involuntary job loss on the individual and household retirement decisions.
Kemal’s research falls within the broad areas of international finance, macroeconomics, and monetary economics. He is interested in the role of frictions (e.g., credit, information, and pricing) in international financial adjustment; the effects and conduct of macroeconomic policies in open economies; and international business cycle. transmission
Katerina's research interests are in the area of time series econometrics and Bayesian methods with particular focus on macroeconomic applications and monetary policy. She is currently working on establishing a semi-parametric methodology for the estimation and inference of models in the presence of time varying parameters and applying this methodology to VAR and DSGE models. Katerina is also interested in MCMC algorithms, state space models and macroeconomic forecasting.
Luca is interested in health economics; incentives and recognition in the workplace and innovation. His research covers understanding whetherpotentially beneficial policies, such as anti-smoking and anti-obesity policies, lead to adverse effects when adopted in combination; if increasing workers’ participation in the workplace is the future of industrial relations and what factors facilitate the cross-border collaborations in inventive activities.
Vibhor is a development economist with especial focus on South Asia. His research interests are in inequality, discrimination, demography, and applied microeconometrics. His current projects include caste and religious discrimination in India in energy and resource distribution and son preference in Asia.
Maria Chiara's main research interests lie in the fields of empirical and behavioural finance, with a particular focus on investors’ nominal price preferences, disagreement, market reactions to corporate events, such as M&A and stock splits. More recently, she is also working on banking systemic risk, investigating the impact of regulation on the resiliency and interconnectedness of the Europan banking system.
Peter researches the 'term structure of interest rates' i.e. the relationship between interest rates or bond yields that differ only in their term to maturity. In particular he focuses on the relationship between short term rates (e.g. the policy intervention rate set by the monetary authority) and long term rates (e.g. on government debt). Peter also looks at factors that determine the 'term premium', the existence of which explains the differences between short and long term yields. This area of research is important as short term rates are strongly influenced by monetary policy actions of the monetary authority (e.g. the Bank of England), but economic activity (e.g. whether a firm invests in a new factory) will be more strongly influenced by long term interest rates, so the exact nature of the relationship is central to the effectiveness of monetary policy on the wider economy.
Ioannis has a particular interest in exploring the predictability of quantitative methods in the empirical asset pricing context. He has worked on subjects of modelling the implied volatility and on the recognition of potential anomalies violating market efficiency, as those revealed by techniques actively implemented by hedge funds and investment banks (e.g. Technical Analysis, Statistical Arbitrage etc). His current work concentrates on revisiting statistical inference frameworks for multiple strategies performance, while adjusting for statistical biases such as data snooping.
Ruslan's research interests tightly relate to derivative markets and empirical asset pricing. His recent work contributes to the understanding of how various measures of investors' beliefs in teh options markets affect future firm and stock market performance, measured through a wide array of cross-sectional, time series and event based tests.
Macro and international economics
Paul’s research is mainly focused on the macro economy of China during the reform era. He is particularly interested in the role that the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China, has played in China’s economic growth and development and the effect of oil price changes on stock returns across industry sectors in China.
Oliver is a macroeconomics researcher and a former central bank economist. He studies economic data and uses economic theory to understand why economies experience cycles of booms and recessions. He is particularly interested in the role of the financial sector in economic fluctuations: why sometimes financial markets are a role for good, dampening economic fluctuations and why, in other times, they create instability in the economy. He is also interested in the design of policy (monetary, fiscal, macroprudential) to mitigate the effects on the economy of problems in financial markets.
Matthew is a macroeconomist who researches the implications of financial market frictions for macroeconomic fluctuations; optimal taxation and political economy issues. His current research includes papers on the causes of the long slumps in output that follow finnacial crises; the implications of financial market frictions for optimal capital taxation and the effects of banking deregulation on income inequality.
Gosia is interested in international macroeconomics. She studies how policies in one country affect its trading partners and how policymakers can coordinate their monetary, macro-prudential and trade policies to improve the welfare in their interconnected economies.
Vivek is a theoretical macroeconomist and former central bank economist. He is interested in how unexpected adverse amplifications of financial market imperfections (or “exogenous financial shocks”) affect the macroeconomy, and how macroeconomic policy can ameliorate any adverse effects. His past research concentrated on fiscal policy and showed that, under certain conditions, a balanced-budget cut in tax rates can boost investment after an unexpected drop in firms’ ability to obtain finance. His current research turns to quantitive easing and aims to show that the size and speed of reversal of QE matter for the impact and persistence of effects on investment.
Ozge researches international macroeconomics, finance and monetary economics and analyses the interactions between financial markets and the design of welfare maximising monetary policy. Recent papers investigate the ways in which the structure of financial markets and imperfections in the workings of financial markets, affect the links between portfolio choice, monetary policy and welfare. Ozge uses newly developed solution techniques to understand how the endogenous allocation of international portfolios across assets affects the optimal design of monetary policy. These are important questions that are of vital interest to policymakers reacting to macroeconomic shocks such as recent financial crises.
Alan is interested in the economic and policy implications of international financial markets. He has worked extensively on models of exchange-rate determination and exchange rate crises. An important theme in this research is the analysis of the macroeconomic and welfare implications of different exchange rate and monetary policy regimes. His most recent work focuses on the cross-country economic linkages created by increased financial market integration. In collaboration with co-authors, Alan has developed efficient numerical techniques for analysing international asset trade and portfolio allocation in multi-country general equilibrium models. This work sheds light on the role of international financial flows in transmitting economic shocks between countries.
Radek is interested in the implications of the massive, new industrial revolution taking place in China and India and in fossil fuel subsidies. He has developed novel techniques for inferring carbon subsidies and calculations for 170 nations (from 1980-2010) reveal that fossil-fuel price subsidies are enormous, increasing, often hidden and, importantly, contribute to higher emissions and lower economic growth. Any government looking to ease strained budgets and make a significant (and cheap) contribution to the fight against climate change must consider slashing fossil fuel subsidies – and the database developed here will be of first order importance.
Alex researches the relationship between economic development and geography in mainly historical contexts. He has worked on topics from banking to infrastructure to pollution. He has a number of projects on the importance of transport infrastructure for growth and for reshaping the geography of the economy using new theoretical models and new datasets to shed light on the long-run interaction between transport infrastructure and development. He is also interested in the relevance to policy of historical pollution and continued social deprivation i.e. that social segregation is not just for the short-run but may persist long into the future. Alex also research mechanisms underpinning the relationship between financial development and growth.